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Vulnerability - Adaptation - Energy System Resilience

This indicator set measures how robust a particular energy system is in the fact of anticipated climate change impacts. The resilience of a country's energy systems is underpinned by at least two key elements:

  1. its inherent vulnerability to climate events; and,
  2. its intrinsic sustainability, i.e. its level of ecodevelopment.

In order to better understand how to improve the ability of energy systems to withstand climate change impacts it is important to: identify the vulnerabilities of a particular energy system; measure how resilient that system is; and, identify what could be done to increase resilience.

The goal of the VAR project is to help policy makers understand what issues need to be addressed in order to ensure energy security and access in a changing climate regime.

The VAR project has developed a straightforward methodology to assess the vulnerability and resilience of energy systems to climate change. There are two sets of energy-related indicators:

  1. a small set which measures the country's specific climate-induced vulnerabilities; and,
  2. a larger set that looks at individual energy systems and assess its vulnerability and identifies how resilience can be increased.

These indicators will cover economic, social, technological, environmental and governance issues, thus delivering a practical tool to measure the effectiveness of adaptation policies addressing such issues as energy generation, health, water quality, desertification, loss of productive capacity etc.

Energy analysts in ten Sub-Saharan African countries have applied these indicators.  Read their analysis and recommendations.  A Global Analysis is also available.

Sub-Saharan African countries:  Benin - Burkina Faso - Cameroon - Democratic Republic of Congo - Kenya - Mali - Nigeria - Senegal - Tanzania - Uganda

This work has been supported by:



 

  As part of this work, HELIO was invited to contribute to a NATO publication called Management of Weather and Climate Risk in the Energy Industry.This publication looks at how weather and climate information provide important elements elements in policy/decision making within the energy sector.  HELIO's contribution looked at the how indicators can be used to improve communication on energy system vulnerability. Click here to read the publication.
  The VAR project is a further development of HELIO's 2007 report: A preliminary assessment of energy and ecosystem resilience in ten African countries. English [PDF, 2.36MB] French [PDF, 2.38MB]

 

NEW!

Country Studies and Global Analysis

HELIO presented its work on vulnerability and adpation at the Climate and Development workshop (hosted by RAC and ENDA) in Dakar, Senegal (June 2010)

HELIO presented this work at COP 15.  Go to the UNFCCC website to access all the presentations given at this side event (Dec.16 2009)

Test the indicators and send us your comments!

VAR methodology and indicators to identify adaptation projects that reinforce energy system resilience: Version One.  English [PDF, 471KB] French [PDF, 574KB] Project Overview [PDF, 129 KB]

Link: Climate change impacts and energy system vulnerability

Climate change can cause numerous impacts including changes in the mean climate parameters as well as the intensity of meteorological events. Impacts can also be seen in changing levels of precipitation (rainfall) and solar radiation (sunshine) and windspeeds. Although temperatures and windspeeds are likely to increase in most regions, levels of rainfall and sunshine may increase or decrease. Impacts from these shifts will be larger if the variability of these events increases. However a decrease in variability can also have a negative impact if the meteorological parameter passes the design threshold of a particular infrastructure, e.g. hydropower systems.

Moreover, climate change impacts can be direct or indirect with indirect impacts frequently being much stronger. For example, an increase in temperature alone is unlikely to destroy any energy infrastructure. However, the melting of glaciers induced by temperature increase will have a strong impact on hydropower resources. Changes in meteorological variables will also impact energy transmission and use regardless of how the energy is produced. Extreme events increase the risk of destruction of transmission lines and reduction of electricity demand due to destruction of electricity-consuming entities.

  

A methodological workshop was held in Bamako, Mali October, 2008 to review and refine the VAR Manual. Participants worked specifically on adpating the indicators to be applicable for a sub-Saharan African context.

In order to improve the ability of energy systems to withstand climate change, the impact of changing meteorological parameters on each energy production system must be assessed. Subsequently, adaptation measures can then be developed to minimize the vulnerability of the energy system.

Measuring and acting

The HELIO VAR Methodology guides country-level energy experts in assessing and measuring the vulnerability and resilience of relevant energy systems.

The VAR Methodology has four main sections.

  • Section One helps the reporter accurately assess the current economic status of the reporter-country, including relevant statistics and geographic, economic and demographic overviews.
  • Section Two helps the reporter identify the reporter-country's greatest vulnerabilities. The system provides a set of indicators covering the five pillars of ecodevelopment, economic, technical, environmental, social, and civic, which the reporter applies to calculate the level of overall vulnerability of the country. The results are then used to inform decision-makers which key policies and measures (PAMs) should be developed to minimise the identified vulnerabilities. (The indicator results also serve as a baseline for comparison for future reports.)
  • Section Three guides the reporter in describing the reporter-country's current energy situation and helps the reporter apply appropriate vulnerability and resilience indicators by energy system including transmission and distribution indicators where appropriate. Resilience indicators include implementation activities such as domestic capital formation and the number of technical engineers graduating annually as a percentage of the total population.
  • Section Four is targeted at policy makers.Reporters identify and develop key policies and measures (PAMs) to be implemented at the national level, including those to reduce overall vulnerabilities. Reporters then develop recommendations from information and results derived from the various indicator calculations. The reporter is thus enabled to propose appropriate concrete strategies to increase the resilience of specific energy systems.

The methodology builds on HELIO's experience in defining energy-relevant indicators carried out through its Sustainable Energy Watch (SEW).The work also draws on SouthSouthNorth Adaptation Project Protocol (SSNAPP) methodology and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Who is involved?

The project team, coordinated by HELIO, is composed of two groups:

  • The in-country energy analysts are part of the HELIO network and have already contributed to the 2007 publication, "A preliminary assessment of energy and ecosystem resilience in ten African countries".

  • The Review Group is composed of experts in the field of energy who review and give feedback on the process and indicators.

For more information about the project, please contact us: helio (at) helio-international.org

HELIO International
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e-mail : helio (at) helio-international.org
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