Table 5. Energy sector carbon emissions intensity and per capita, 1998

Vector Value calculations and values

For indicator 1, the value for 1 on the vector is 1 130 kgC/capita, which is the 1990 global average of carbon emissions from fossil fuel production. The value of 0 on the vector, or the sustainability goal, is 339 kgC/capita - a 70% reduction from 1990 levels.
According to the International Energy Agency, South Africa's energy sector carbon emissions for 1998 totalled 353.7 million metric tonnes (MMT) of carbon dioxide, or 96.5 MMT of carbon (IEA 2000a). On a population of 42.1 million people (SSA 1998), this is 2 291 kgC/capita. This compares to 2 205 kgC/capita in 1990. This means that the vector values for South Africa are greater than one for both years - 2.47 for 1998 and 2.26 for 1990.

Metric (actual data) for 1990: 2 205 kgC/capita and 1998 2 291 kgC/capita
Vector values for 1990: 2.26 and 1998 2.47

Discussion

South Africa entered the climate change debate relatively late, only ratifying the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1997. Government has developed a climate change policy discussion document (DEAT 1998), and is currently working on a national response strategy. The Discussion Document mentions a wide range of possible energy strategies, including greater use of renewables and energy efficiency, as well as cleaner fossil fuels, but no specific measures. Moreover, this document has not been translated into policy yet. The DME Energy White Paper states that government will follow a 'no regrets' approach in the energy sector with regard to the potential global environmental impacts of energy activities (DME 1998). What precisely this means is unclear, but government strategies around renewable energy and energy efficiency - discussed in more detail below - will have a major impact on emissions. In addition, the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism is finalising the National Strategy Study for Clean Development Mechanism, which will identify areas in which South Africa can attract investment into greenhouse gas reduction projects using the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Note that the data for this vector calculation were taken from the International Energy Agency report on carbon dioxide emissions from 1971-1998 (IEA 2000a). The reason for choosing this data, rather than the official inventory, is mainly timeliness. South Africa's first national communication only reports greenhouse gas inventories for 1990 and 1994 - and this is not likely to be updated on an annual basis. The reference approach energy sector emissions reported in the National Communication for 1994 are about 2% higher than those reported by the IEA, although the difference for 1990 is around 10%. The reasons for these difference need to be explored, but one reason is the relatively higher emissions factor for coal in South Africa compared to IPCC default values, because of the lower calorific value of South African coal (Howells & Solomon 2000).

Notes to SEW or next year's Observer-Reporter:

The next steps would be to try to reconcile the IEA and South African data, and also develop a way to track this locally on an annual basis. This would most likely involve an annual analysis of the DME Energy Balances to get a 'Tier 1' Reference Approach estimate of energy sector emissions. This might not capture fugitive emissions, however, so independent estimates of these would be required. There is also discussion within government about how to update the inventory regularly, so it will be useful to raise these issues with both DEAT and DME officials.

Ideally the trend from 1990 to the present should be reported for all years.