(2001) South Africa

• Indicator 8: Renewable Energy Deployment

• Vector Value calculations and values
• Discussion and notes to SEW or next year's Observer-Reporter

Renewable energy has long been considered the 'poor cousin' of large-scale, centralised fossil fuel and nuclear energy production in South Africa. In fact, the phrase 'energy for development' under the apartheid-era government effectively meant that renewable energy technologies would only be used for 'developing areas' (ie poor black communities) in remote rural areas (Marquard 1999). That has changed significantly since the new government promulgated the White Paper on Energy Policy, which includes a range a initiatives to promote renewable energy. Much of this effort, however, still is only focused on rural areas, where renewable energy is more financially cost effective than extending the electricity grid. The Department of Minerals and Energy is in the process of developing a comprehensive renewable energy strategy, that provides the basis for government investment in this subsector and implementation many of the White Paper policies (DME web site).

Renewable energy in most Africa countries means biomass, first and foremost. This has also been true in South Africa. Except for a few small hydroelectric facilities and a small number of other renewable energy demonstration projects, biomass use has been the only significant source of renewable energy until very recently. Quantitative research on national biomass consumption, however, has been very limited, with the DME Biomass Initiative being the most authoritative report (Williams et al. 1996).

As discussed above in Indicator 4, several large demonstration projects are under discussion in South Africa, including ones that would supply centralised renewable electricity generation. In addition, the off-grid concessions programme will be one of the largest programmes of its kind in the world, and will create a market for solar home systems that could top $70 million per year (EC et al. 2000).

For this indicator, the value for 1 on the vector is the world average renewable energy supply as a share of total primary energy supply (TPES) in 1995, which was 8.64% (Helio International 2000). The value for 0 on the vector, which is our sustainability goal, is 95%. South Africa's share of renewable energy to TPES in 1998 was 5.1%. This means that South Africa's value on this vector is 1.04.

Metric (actual data) for 1998: 5.1%
Vector value for 1998: 1.04

Discussion

The greatest barrier to tracking the deployment of renewable energy in South Africa is the lack of good data on household biomass consumption. Biomass production and use reported by government statistics varies widely from year to year, largely because there is no authoritative primary data source. Even the 1998 energy balance, probably the most thorough to date, relies on a 1996 Biomass Initiative report from the DME for the biomass consumption estimates, and these data would have been based on data from earlier years (Williams et al. 1996; Pouris 2001). The data used here have been taken from the DME energy balance, therefore, taking into account earlier biomass studies (1996).

Even if we knew total biomass production and consumption, however, it is not clear how much of this is 'sustainable' - in other words, how much is sustainably harvested. The level of uncertainty about land-use change, such as deforestation, impacts on South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions, for example, is high. There are no reliable estimates from government on the net changes in fuelwood stocks (Williams 2001).

For this indicator to be a useful reflection of South African energy development, and for government to have any understanding of the impact of national policy on the poor, rural populations that still depend heavily on biomass, more systematic data collection and analysis is urgently needed. For countries such as South Africa to push for renewable energy development without a major emphasis on the sustainable and efficient use of local biomass resources would be an expensive, and possibly inequitable, strategy for sustainable development.

Notes to SEW or next year's Observer-Reporter:

The reporter should consult the DME and the consultant who does the energy balances (Dr A Pouris) to see if any additional research on biomass is available.