| 8 INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABILITY |
1. Global environmental impacts
are measured by CO2 emissions per capita due to primary energy. This indicator
will allow us to monitor how the main commitments under the UNFCCC are
respected. The IPCC suggested that a 60 to 80% decrease in emissions was
required to stabilise the climate. To return to pre-climatic changes conditions,
we wish for a 90% reduction of the 1990 level. We cannot, however, have
the same reduction target for developed and developing countries. We therefore
need to establish the absolute figure of desirable long-term world average
CO2 emissions per capita to which all countries should converge using
1990 figures:
1990 world CO2 emissions from energy sector = 6 billion tons of carbon;
1990 world population = 5.3 billion people
1990 average = 1.13 tons of CO2/capita
In the long-term (2100) sustainable world CO2 emissions could be 1.2 billion tons (20% of 1990 level, after 80 % reduction). Assuming that the 2100 stabilised world population will be 7 to 15 billion people according to most recent demographic scenarios. let us take the intermediate figure of 10.6 billion within this range, which corresponds to a doubling of our 1990 population.
Then, sustainable CO2 emissions/capita = 1.2 billion tons / 10.6 billion
people = 0.113 tons/capita per year in the long term. This is exactly
10 % of current level (1.13 tons/capita) keeping our goal of 90 % reduction.
Discussing causes and solutions could then lead to presenting alternative
options to help the country limit its emissions.
Vector:
0 : 1990 level of global CO2 emissions per capita (1.13 t)
1 : one tenth of 1990 level of global CO2 emissions per capita
2. Local environmental impacts
are assessed using measurements of the most significant local pollutant from the energy sector (SOx, NOx, VOC, O3, becquerels or others to be chosen in Annex E of the Rio + 5 Report) which will be selected by the local observer-reporter. A basket of pollutants may also be devised by the OR. Pollution can cause accidents and require sophisticated care, population resettlement, all of which impact on the state of the environment, as well as the health and welfare of the populations.
Vector:
0 : 1990 level of emissions of the selected pollutant (s)
1 : one tenth of the 1990 level of emissions
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3. Rural electrification
measured by the percentage of rural households having access to a power
supply (grid or otherwise). It will also be relevant to quote the percentage
of energy expenditures in the overall household budget, referring to the
evolution of energy prices. This indicator covers the accessibility and
affordability of an element which is now vital for human progress, education
and comfort.
Vector
: 0 : 1990 level of rural households having electricity
1 : all rural households have electricity
4. Employment intensity
measured by the number of direct energy jobs created per million dollars
invested in energy. Assumptions are that labor is now possibly the least
scarce factor of production, that employment remains a major societal
reward and that sustainable energy (renewables and demand management)
is a better job creator than capital-intensive energy dependant on stocks.
The energy sector cannot be requested to create more employment than the
rest of the economy; the indicator, therefore, will be optimal when the
energy sector produces a similar proportion of jobs per million of dollars
invested as the others sectors.
To reflect what really happens in a society, such a social indicator also has to deal with public participation in energy decision-making, transparency in the energy field and acceptance by the public. The observer-reporter can use the matrix on Figure n° 2, Monitoring of the Decision-making Process , also available on the website).
Vector:
0 : 1990 level of direct energy jobs per million dollars invested
1 : direct employment created per million dollars invested in the overall
economy that year
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5. Resilience to external impacts
(stable energy prices and security of supply)
can be measured by the level of energy sufficiency, i.e. the percentage of net energy exports or imports (including fabricated fuels and, eventually, energy equipment). Energy is a major agent of production and a strategic good. Its availability should not be unduly affected by events outside the control of people who need it and should not lead to resource wars. Resilience also requires diversity which can be assessed by the percentage of energy coming from the various sources of energy.
In net energy-importing countries:
1 : zero net energy imports
In net energy-exporting countries:
1 : energy exports value/value of total exports= 0%
top of file 6. Burden of energy investments on development
is seen in the proportion of governmental investments in energy generation
compared to the amount of GDP. Over-investments have a negative impact
on local development, especially if they are public rather than private
and crowd out other vital investments in care, production of essential
goods or education.
Vector
: 0 : 1990 level of public energy investment in GDP
1 : zero public energy investment
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7. Energy productivity
is the inverse of energy intensity and is measured by GDP divided by primary
energy consumption. It increases when a country is able to produce as
many or more goods with less energy. A factor of ten seems achievable
with to-day's technology as suggested in the recent OECD and UNEP eco-efficiency
documents. In 1990, OECD countries had a productivity index of 0.1335
US$/MJ, while the current world average was only 0.094 US$/MJ.
Vector
: 0 : 1990 level GDP/Total primary energy
1 : ten times the 1990 world level of 0.094 US$/MJ
top of file 8. Sustainable energy deployment
can be measured by the share of energy output coming from energy conservation
and renewables (excluding mega-hydro and unsustainable biomass exploitation).
These statistics will require a specific calculation from the reporter.
Energy conservation will include all forms of energy saved and be computed
starting from a 1990 level. According to latest IPCC scenarios, sustainable
energy should represent 95% of the overall energy budget, if we want to
limit CO2 emissions to 0.113 tons per capita. It leaves 5% fossil fuels
in the future.
The computation of this indicator will then lead to a discussion of energy policy tools which can be deployed to support renewable clean energy, as well as efficiency and conservation practices.
Vector
: 0 : 1990 level of sustainable energy
1 : 95% of total primary energy
Chaque région géographique sera décrite à
l'aide de quelques statistiques-clés sur la démographie
et l'économie. Ces premières données quantitatives
sont destinées à amener une discussion sur des éléments
plus qualitatifs et à permettre une comparaison avec les conditions
constatées l'année précédente.
Le niveau de viabilité de chaque région sera matérialisé
graphiquement par la représentation des huit indicateurs de viabilité
sélectionnés, gradués sur les rayons d'un cercle.
Le niveau de progrès est marqué par la distance que couvre
chaque indicateur en direction du centre du cercle (0 en périphérie
et 1 au centre). L'optimum d'écodéveloppement est réalisé
lorsque tous les indicateurs atteignent le centre du cercle.
