While identifying natural gas, renewables and conservation as the major growth markets, most energy experts see coal, oil and fission reactors having declining market shares over the next 25 years. Interestingly, experts expect climate change to have only a moderate influence on energy supply and use in their countries, with new technology, green taxes and changing social values playing much larger roles than today. Because of new technologies, especially renewables, fully eight in ten experts believe that additional units of electrical generation added to the grid over the next 25 years will generally be smaller and more decentralized than in the past.

  These are some of the findings from the first annual GlobeScan survey of energy experts in 43 countries, conducted during October 1996 by Synergistics Consulting Limited of Toronto, Canada. Synergistics invited over 600 respected energy experts to respond to the survey ensuring equal representation from the energy industry, government agencies, universities, non-governmental organizations, and energy consultants. Four in ten respondents were from Western Europe and three in ten from North America.

  Other highlights include:

* Western Europe seen as making better progress towards sustainability than North America. Three in four North American experts give their countries poor marks for progress to-date in ensuring sustainability of energy supply and use. In comparison, less than half of Western European experts rate their country's progress as poor.

* Mandatory efficiency standards and voluntary industry programs are the most likely controls on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the near term, along with carbon taxes in Europe and emission trading in America. One in two experts expect new mandatory efficiency measures and negotiated/voluntary agreements will be widely applied to control GHG emissions in their countries within the next 5 years. The same proportion of European experts expect carbon/energy taxes to be in place as well, while North American experts see emission trading of CO2 as more likely.

* Co-generation, wind turbines, photovoltaics and biomass fuels are seen as the fastest growing technologies for generating electricity. Over one in two experts expect high growth in installed capacity in each of the above-mentioned technologies. Fully eight in ten expect that additional units of electrical generation added to the grid over the next 25 years will generally be smaller and more decentralized than in the past.

The complete findings from this GlobeScan Survey on Sustainable Energy topics - including a significant section exploring the deregulation of the electrical utility sector, as well as regional and sectoral differences - is available on a subscription basis.