• Instructions on calculating Vector for Indicator 1

• General Discussion

• Examples

The following statistics are emissions of carbon (not carbon dioxide) in metric tonnes per year from combustion of fossil fuels (crude oil products such as motor fuels and heating oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, heavier hydrocarbon gases, coal, tar sand and oil shale products, etc). 

To convert CO₂ units to carbon, divide by 3.667. See Appendix L for conversion factors.

Enter the following data:

• Country's emissions of carbon dioxide from 1990 fossil fuel consumption:

 
=                                     million tonnes of carbon. 


Note: if you use data from this Manual's Appendix (World Resources Institute's World Resources 1998-1999), subtract emissions from cement manufacturing from the total emissions listed. 

Also note that the data is given in CO₂ emissions, not carbon content (i.e., divide by 3.667).
 

• Country's total emissions this year:

 
=                                      million metric tonnes of carbon.
 
• Country's population 1990:

 
=                                     million
 
• Country's population this year: 

 
=                                     million.
 
• Country's 1990 emissions per capita: 

 
=                                     kilograms of carbon per capita.
 
• Country's emissions per capita this year:

 
=                                      kilograms of carbon per capita.

The "1" circle equals the 1990 value = 1,130 kilograms of carbon per capita (kgC/cap).
 
• Country's per capita carbon emissions this year:

 
=  X  =                                      kgC/cap.
 
• The center, the zero point, equals three-tenths of the 1990 value:

= Y = 339 kgC/cap.
   
Hence the 0 to 1 segment equals seven-tenths of 1990: 
 
= 1,130 - 339 
 
= Z = 791 kgC/cap.

• Actual calculation of the vector:

 

 

country's vector in year                  :
 

= (                              ^Note - 339 kgC/cap)/791 kgC/cap
 
=  ________________
 
• Optional vector calculation for 1990:

 

 

country's vector in year 1990:
 

= (                                     - 339 kgC/cap)/791 kgC/cap
 
=  ________________ 

Vector:

• 1 : 1990 global CO₂ emissions per capita (1,130 kgC/cap)
• 0 : three-tenths of 1990 global CO₂ emissions per capita (339 kgC/cap)

Global environmental impact will be measured by carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions per capita (actually the carbon in the CO₂). Each nation's per capita emissions will be compared to the 1990 global average. We do not yet know with certainty what reduced level of total greenhouse emissions and related atmospheric CO₂ concentration would "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system²¹." Reasonable estimates range from a 60% to an 80% reduction of emissions²². SEW selected a sustainability objective of a 70% reduction from 1990 emission levels.

At the Third Conference of the Parties in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997 the developed countries collectively agreed to decrease emissions of the six principal greenhouse gases by 5.2% by 2008-2012 period compared to the base year 1990²³. We use 1990 as the base year for this and the other seven indicators. SEW participants, realising that a far more aggressive target than the Kyoto Protocol was needed, base the sustainability objective on a converging goal of equal per capita emissions for all world citizens.

In 1990, the global average emission of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion was 1.13 metric tonne (1,130 kg) of carbon per capita²⁴. Not included are emissions from cement manufacturing (which globally adds 3% to fossil fuel emissions), nor are increased emissions from biomass combustion, land clearing, or natural or intentional forest fires (which globally add ~29% to the atmospheric CO₂ burden)²⁵. Nor are other significant greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄, 19%), CFCs (6%) and halocarbons (5%), or nitrous oxide (N₂O, 6%) included in the SEW target²⁶.

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Examples:
 

United States

Formula:(X - Y) ¸ Z²⁷

Actual calculation of the vector:

 

 

country's vector in year            1995           :

= (                   5,602             - 339 kgC/cap)/791 kgC/cap

=        6.654 

Since per capita emissions are far higher than the global average in most industrialised countries, and highest of all in the United States, a high vector value is expected, indicating extremely low global energy sustainability²⁸.

Albania

Formula:(X - Y) ¸ Z²⁷

Actual calculation of the vector:

 

 

country's vector in year            1995           :

= (                   141              - 339 kgC/cap)/791 kgC/cap

=        -0.250 

Close to the center of the circle, indicating high sustainability²⁹. Since the value is negative-it is already below SEW's sustainability objective-Albania can increase its emissions in pursuit of economic growth, or, better yet, expand its economy without increasing its emissions. In the latter case, the country has a valuable asset that might, through Joint Implementation (JI) and/or tradable carbon permits, be "sold" on the international market.