Ukraine - Two scenarios of structural changes in Ukraine's industry

Indicator 1 - Per capita energy sector CO₂ emissions

Vector Value calculations and values
Figure 1.1. Ukraine's trade by product group (1998, in %)
Figure 1.2. GDP energy intensity by international comparison
Table 1.1. Structure of Ukraine's industrial output within the two groups of sectors , %
Table 1.2. Two scenarios of structural changes in Ukraine's industry
Figure 1.3. Forecasts of carbon emissions in accordance with BAU and "clean" scenarios

We elaborated two scenarios of future structural changes in Ukraine's industry: BAU scenario and «clean» scenario, table 1.2:

Table 1.2. Two scenarios of structural changes in Ukraine's industry

Type of scenario	Share of output, %
Type of scenario	2005	2010	2015
BAU scenario: I group II group Total	60 40 100	66 34 100	75 25 100
«Clean» scenario: I group II group Total	45 55 100	35 65 100	30 70 100

The both scenarios allow keeping the same dynamics of GDP growth, but emissions of energy related carbon would be substantially different (fig. 3) as the two groups of sectors suppose different energy intensity.